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Economía 2018: El año del crecimiento económico

Economía 2018

Economía 2018: El año del crecimiento económico

Economía 2018

Una demanda externa más dinámica, un buen comportamiento del consumo público y un crecimiento importante de las obras civiles, serían los factores que más jalonarían la economía del 2018 según proyecciones del Banco de la República.

Se prevé que al finalizar el 2018, la economía colombiana puede crecer en un 2,7% ; el Banco afirma que “el próximo año se recibiría un impulso adicional generado por una mayor demanda externa”, sumado al precio del petróleo que se estima permanecerá estable permitiendo así una recuperación de capital con la proyección de un déficit corriente en torno a 3,6 % del PIB, nivel que aún es superior al promedio histórico del país.

En lo que tiene que ver con el endeudamiento del país, el Banco contempla que  desde marzo se puede ver un crecimiento nominal relativamente estable, cercano al 6 %. “El crédito dirigido a los hogares continúa desacelerándose aunque mantiene aumentos que superan la inflación y el aumento del PIB nominal. El endeudamiento comercial crece a una tasa baja, cercana a la inflación. Las tasas de interés de créditos comerciales (con excepción de la de construcción) han registrado caídas superiores a la de la tasa de política. La transmisión hacia las tasas de interés de los préstamos dirigidos a los hogares ha sido menor”.

Uno de los sectores que aportará al crecimiento de la economía en el 2018 es de la construcción; las proyecciones se presentaron en el Foro Económico sectorial en donde Camacol manifestó que para el próximo año se tendrá un crecimiento del 4,6%, casi el doble de la economía en su conjunto.

Según declaraciones de La presidenta de Camacol, Sandra Forero Ramírez, el 2018 presentará un balance más optimista en cuestión financiera ya que se espera iniciar el año con la construcción de 150 mil unidades de vivienda, lo que significa un incremento aproximado del 4,6%.

Para los empresarios el panorama del 2018 es realmente alentador ya que el 2017 fue un año de crisis relativamente para el sector económico. De igual forma, el mismo Gobierno  Nacional augura una recuperación económica asegurando que “lo peor ya paso”;al respecto, el Ministro de Hacienda, Mauricio Cárdenas precisó “los cálculos del Latin American Consensus Forecasts indican que Colombia tendrá un PIB del 2,7% en el próximo año, pero también está la estimación del FMI, que prevé que la expansión económica en el 2018 será del 2,8%. Esto indica que la senda es ascendente y que trimestre tras trimestre los datos de la economía seguirán siendo mejores que los meses anteriores”.

Autoridades y empresarios coinciden en que el país deberá aprovechar el buen momento por el que están pasando sectores como el cafetero, petrolero, ganadero, las obras civiles, intermediación financiera y la hotelería para aunar esfuerzos y hacer que la economía crezca de modo que al finalizar el 2018 se presente un balance bastante positivo acerca de las finanzas nacionales.

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